Tornado Outbreak Potential Index

This product is "Patent pending" and has already secured myself, John Michael L'Heureux, as the inventor of this product. Dr. Ryan Boyles and Dr. Chip Konrad have been credited for their contribution to this project. This new method of measuring tornado outbreak potential will not be described in detail until after the patent has been approved. The index is not designed to replace what is in place, but is designed to augment current forecasts. Due to the methods used to compile this index, I consider this a more effective product for designating the damage of a tornado outbreak.

This is my fourth test run of my tornadic damage potential index. I have produced a plot below, depicting the ideal geopotential height anomalies found for tornadic activity for the Mid-Atlantic. Note that my index does not rank the outbreaks by number of tornadoes alone but weighs several criteria. The index normalizes the damage potential from 1950 - 2010 and no longer treats earlier dates as being less significant for tornadic activity.  Note that due to the other new index I am using, dates I constitute to be significant may not be significant in any other analysis (and vice versa). For example, my index treats "29 F0 tornadoes" as being different than "29 F3 tornadoes" and ranks the damage potential accordingly.

NCEP/NCAR figure for historical "most ideal scenario" for tornadic activity for Virginia, Maryland, eastern West Virginia, southeast Pennsylvania, Delaware, and southwest New Jersey.

 The next plot shows the actual geopotential height anomalies for today (red = higher than usual, blue = lower than usual). Note that the two plots are not a carbon copy match, and deviations from the ideal state gave a low tornado outbreak damage potential for the Mid-Atlantic for today. This means that 1)few tornadoes 2)weak tornadoes 3)short tracked tornadoes) are contributing to the low number. Still, having ANY damage potential for the Mid-Atlantic during the month of May is uncommon.

Actual geopotential height anomalies for today

And the third plot, which shows the current watches/warnings for the Mid-Atlantic.

Current tornado warnings (red polygons) as of 4PM eastern time