Tornado Test

What happened to Beryl? Beryl never regained tropical storm status. The trough that accelerated the storm out of the Southeast decoupled the low level circulation from the convection activity. The storm transitioned to extratropical status. The well defined surface circulation is still visible but the lowest surface pressure has become very elongated, almost like a trough. The storm has been defined as post-tropical.

Cells favored most tomorrow for severe weather; tornado damage number is low, suggesting either very few tornadoes, short lived tornadoes, or weak tornadoes.

Storm Prediction Center's region most likely to see severe weather on Thursday

Cells favored most Friday for severe weather; tornado damage number still on the low (higher than the cells on Thursday), suggesting few tornadoes, short lived tornadoes, or weak tornadoes (some combination of those three).

Storm Prediction Center most likely area for severe weather Friday

This is a test update on my tornado index. Note that these forecasts are not purely derived from my new index (still unreleased, patent pending). Rather, it is the hope that the new tornado index is implemented to augment pre-existing forecasts. Note that for both days and for all cells the numbers I am getting are quite low (for tornado damage potential). Even using conventional techniques we are most likely to see severe thunderstorms with hail, damaging winds, but a small percentage for tornadic activity.

How come the cell containing the High Country is not included? Although there is a high potential for severe thunderstorms being near the area, conditions are not favorable enough for significant tornadic activity. Note that this index does not place much weight on squall line induced tornadoes and weighs longer tracking, more violent, and more frequent tornadoes more heavily than isolated events.

Using a conventional forecast, I have come to a similar conclusion; although storms may be severe near and around the High Country, the Piedmont and eastern Piedmont will get the lions share of the severe weather.