February Archived Model Precipitation

This is my archived model precipitation outlook for each day in February, along with the daily mean temperature freezing line (dark blue line). Since the line represents the mean temperature, this can still mean the high exceeds the freezing point. A good rule of thumb is to assume the high and the low are 10-15* F apart from one another. So, it is best to be behind the freezing line for a higher probability of snowfall. The winters used are 1952, 1967,1970,1978,1979, and 2009. Rainfall is in mm/day. The high end is 25.4mm, which is the equivalent of 1" of rainfall.

Note that this model run is not going to be perfect and will have considerable inaccuracies. As Matt Parker from North Carolina State University says "All models are wrong. Some are useful." This model gives a good indication of what it has done historically for the most similar winters to this one, but does not necessarily imply the same pattern will show up. Rather, the larger scale teleconnection patterns are captured and unless small amplitude/high frequency patterns show up in multiple years, the small patterns are frequently dampened, if not removed entirely. Therefore, some patterns may still occur but be 1-4 days off from the actual pattern.