Where's Our Snow?

Temperature anomalies (in Celsius). Very cold less than -3*C, Cold is between -1*C and -3*C, near normal between -1*C and +1*C, Warm is between +1*C and +3*C, very warm is greater than +3*C

 Thankfully once we get out of the first 2/3 of December, we do not see predominant warm anomalies showing up until the end of February. Is this a repeat of last winter, which brought unusual warmth and a lack of snow? The short answer is no. A weak El Nino in the Pacific exists where there was not one last year. The Stratosphere above the Arctic is warming rapidly whereas last year there was no sign of this. A colder stratosphere above the Arctic means a warmer winter for us across the Southeast. The recent spike and the pattern that will take place over the next two weeks will keep this trend into effect. It will be a slow start into our winter, but once it is here, our cooler weather will be here to stay.

Black line = temperature this year, blue line = average

If anyone paid attention to my call of 41" of snowfall for Boone, NC, it's actually the same 36" I predicted back in October, except I added the Sandy snowfall event to the winter total. Why? No winter forecast already accounted for a once-in-a lifetime storm that took place in October. 36" of snowfall for the rest of the winter is actually 3" below Boone's average of 39".  You include Sandy's snow accumulation and you get 41" instead, which is right around average for Boone.

Temperature deviations from the norm (Celsius)

Ouch. The first half of this month is looking painful for ski resorts across the Southeast to get much of a base down. Crazy enough is that these most similar winters 1)have a trough moving through around the 12th that is conducive for snow making 2)Greenland blocking starts setting in the last 1/3 of December, helping to drive colder weather farther south.

If someone did account for a storm like Sandy contributing to a heavy snowfall for a winter forecast, please put me in contact with them immediately!